Discuss the contours of Pakistan's strategic relations with India and Afghanistan in detail. Do you foresee any serious security challenges from these neighbours in near future? Explain your opinion with scholarly evidences.

Introduction

Pakistan's security environment is shaped above all by its eastern and western neighbours. Strategists have long spoken of a two-front dilemma: a larger, hostile India in the east and an unstable Afghanistan in the west. Relations with both were tense in 2025 and seem likely to remain so in the near future.

Relations with India

Relations have been defined by the Kashmir dispute, wars in 1947–48, 1965, 1971 and Kargil (1999), and nuclear deterrence since 1998. After India revoked Article 370 in August 2019, Pakistan downgraded ties and suspended trade. India accuses Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism; Pakistan accuses India of sponsoring militancy in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. After the Pahalgam attack in April 2025, India announced it would hold the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, and in May 2025 the two countries exchanged missile, drone and air strikes before a ceasefire, with international mediation. Dialogue mechanisms are frozen.

Relations with Afghanistan

Afghanistan has never recognised the Durand Line. Pakistan hosted millions of Afghan refugees and was closely involved in Afghan wars. Expectations that the Taliban government (since August 2021) would be friendly have been disappointed: the TTP has intensified attacks from Afghan territory, border clashes have occurred, and Pakistan has repatriated undocumented Afghans. At the same time, Afghanistan is important for trade and connectivity to Central Asia.

Security challenges in the near future

From India: the risk of limited conflicts escalating under the nuclear threshold, as crises in 2019 and 2025 showed; India's growing conventional and naval power and military partnerships with the US; doctrines of rapid punitive strikes; water coercion through the Indus system; hybrid and information warfare; and an arms race in missiles and new technologies.

From Afghanistan: continued TTP and other militant attacks; instability spilling over the border; smuggling and narcotics; refugee pressures; and the possibility of hostile actors using Afghan soil.

The nexus: Pakistan alleges that India supports militants operating from Afghanistan, creating a combined threat on both borders while the army is stretched.

Scholarly perspectives

Scholars such as Stephen P. Cohen described the India–Pakistan rivalry as a "paired minority conflict" unlikely to be resolved soon. Analysts of nuclear stability, including Vipin Narang, highlight the dangers of crisis escalation in South Asia. Writers on Afghanistan, such as Ahmed Rashid, have long warned that the Taliban's ties with Pakistani militants would rebound on Pakistan. These views support the expectation of serious, though manageable, security challenges.

Policy recommendations

India: maintain credible deterrence while reopening backchannels and risk-reduction measures; pursue diplomatic and legal remedies on the Indus Waters Treaty; internationalise Kashmir through diplomacy; prevent non-state actors from triggering crises. Afghanistan: combine firm demands on the TTP with economic engagement, border management, regional diplomacy (China, Iran, Central Asia, Qatar, Türkiye) and development of border regions. Domestic: strengthen counter-terrorism capacity, economic resilience and national unity, since internal weakness magnifies external threats.

Conclusion

Pakistan's strategic relations with India are adversarial and those with Afghanistan increasingly troubled. Serious security challenges from both are likely in the near future. Pakistan's response must combine deterrence and diplomacy in the east with security and engagement in the west — underpinned by a strong economy and internal stability.