Discuss how emerging technologies such as deepfakes, quantum computing, and AI surveillance may influence the nature of crime in the coming decades.

Introduction

Every major technology changes the opportunities for crime and the means of controlling it. Deepfakes, quantum computing and AI-based surveillance are likely to make crime more digital, more transnational and harder to prove, while giving the state powerful — and potentially dangerous — new tools.

Deepfakes

Deepfakes are synthetic images, audio or video generated by AI that convincingly imitate real people. They enable fraud and impersonation: in a widely reported 2024 case in Hong Kong, an employee of a multinational firm transferred about US$25 million after a video call in which the company's executives were deepfaked. They are used for extortion and sextortion, non-consensual intimate imagery (overwhelmingly targeting women), identity theft that bypasses voice or face verification, and political manipulation through fake speeches. They also create the "liar's dividend": real evidence can be dismissed as fake, complicating investigations and trials.

Quantum computing

Large-scale quantum computers could break widely used public-key encryption such as RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography, which protect banking, government communications and digital signatures. Criminals and hostile states may already be stealing encrypted data to decrypt it later ("harvest now, decrypt later"). The response is post-quantum cryptography; the US National Institute of Standards and Technology published its first post-quantum encryption standards in 2024. Quantum technologies may also strengthen security through quantum key distribution, so the outcome depends on who adopts them first.

AI surveillance

AI-powered facial recognition, predictive analytics and automated monitoring of cameras and online data can help police identify suspects, find missing persons, detect fraud patterns and respond faster. "Safe city" projects in Pakistan's major cities use such tools. However, they raise serious concerns: privacy violations; algorithmic bias that misidentifies certain groups; function creep, where systems built for crime control are used against journalists, activists or political opponents; and data breaches. Criminals can also use AI to automate phishing, write malware, scan for vulnerabilities and evade detection.

Changes in the nature of crime

Crime will shift further from physical to cyber-enabled forms; offenders will need less technical skill because AI tools lower barriers; crimes will cross borders more easily, complicating jurisdiction; victims will be targeted at scale; and evidence will increasingly be digital and contestable. Policing will become more data-driven, raising the question of who watches the watchers.

Implications for Pakistan and responses

Pakistan should strengthen the FIA's cybercrime capacity and digital forensics, including deepfake detection; update the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act to address synthetic media and identity fraud; adopt a strong personal data protection law with independent oversight of surveillance; require banks and telecom companies to use multi-factor verification resistant to voice and video cloning; begin migrating critical systems to post-quantum cryptography; cooperate internationally under frameworks such as the Budapest Convention model; and run public awareness campaigns on AI-enabled scams.

Conclusion

Deepfakes will make deception cheap and convincing, quantum computing threatens the encryption on which digital life depends, and AI surveillance offers powerful but double-edged tools. The future of crime control will depend on technological preparedness combined with legal safeguards that protect privacy and civil liberties.