Critically discuss the conceptualized energy's influence on the world geo-politics and its distinctiveness of global energy governance.

Introduction

In his State of the Union address of January 1980, US President Jimmy Carter declared: "An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force." The Carter Doctrine shows how energy is conceptualised in world politics: not as an ordinary commodity, but as a source of power, security and survival. From coal in the industrial age to oil in the 20th century and lithium and rare earths today, whoever controls energy shapes alliances, wars and economies. Yet, unlike trade or finance, energy has no single global rulebook; its governance is fragmented and distinctive.

Overview

Energy became a strategic issue when Britain switched its navy from coal to oil before the First World War, making access to Persian oil a national priority. In the 20th century oil decided wars, created wealthy states in the Gulf and drew great powers into the Middle East. Natural gas later tied Europe to Russia through pipelines. In the 21st century, the energy transition to renewables is creating a new geopolitics based on technology, manufacturing and critical minerals. Energy is therefore conceptualised in three ways: as a resource to be controlled, a weapon to be used and a public good whose governance affects the climate and development of all.

Energy's influence on world geopolitics

1. Oil and the world wars.

Access to oil shaped strategy in both world wars; Germany's drive towards the Caucasus oilfields and Japan's attack in the Pacific after the US oil embargo of 1941 were driven largely by the need for fuel. (Reference: Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money and Power, 1991.)

2. The 1973 oil embargo.

Arab oil producers imposed an embargo on the US and the Netherlands during the October 1973 war, and oil prices roughly quadrupled, showing that oil could be used as a political weapon. (Reference: US Department of State, Office of the Historian, "Oil Embargo, 1973–1974".)

3. The Gulf as a strategic prize.

The Carter Doctrine (1980), the Gulf War of 1990–91 and the permanent US military presence in the Gulf all reflect the region's central place in world energy supply. (Reference: Carter's State of the Union address, 23 January 1980; US Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints, Strait of Hormuz.)

4. The petrodollar.

The US-Saudi understandings of the 1970s, under which oil was priced in dollars and surpluses were invested in US assets, strengthened the dollar's global role. Today, moves to trade oil in other currencies are watched as signs of a changing order. (Reference: US Department of the Treasury records, 1974 US-Saudi Joint Commission; Bank for International Settlements reports on currency use.)

5. Gas as a weapon.

Russia's gas cut-offs to Ukraine in 2006 and 2009 and its reduction of supplies to Europe in 2022 showed how pipelines create political dependence. Europe responded by cutting Russian gas imports sharply. (Reference: International Energy Agency, Gas Market Reports, 2022–2024; European Commission, REPowerEU, 2022.)

6. China's "Malacca dilemma".

President Hu Jintao warned in 2003 that China's oil imports depend on the narrow Strait of Malacca. This concern drives China's investments in pipelines, ports such as Gwadar, and the Belt and Road Initiative. (Reference: Ian Storey, "China's Malacca Dilemma", China Brief, Jamestown Foundation, 2006.)

7. The US shale revolution.

Shale oil and gas made the United States the world's largest oil producer since 2018 and the largest LNG exporter by 2023, giving it new energy leverage and reducing its dependence on the Middle East. (Reference: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics and LNG export data, 2023.)

8. Critical minerals and the clean-energy race.

China refines most of the world's rare earths, lithium, cobalt and graphite and makes most solar panels and batteries. Control of these supply chains is the new energy geopolitics. (Reference: International Energy Agency, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.)

Distinctiveness of global energy governance

1. No single global regime.

Unlike trade (WTO) or finance (IMF), energy has no single universal organisation or treaty. Governance is spread across many bodies, clubs and markets. (Reference: Ann Florini and Benjamin Sovacool, "Who Governs Energy?", Energy Policy, 2009.)

2. A divide between producers and consumers.

Energy governance has been shaped by the opposing interests of exporting and importing states. The International Energy Forum (IEF), based in Riyadh, was created to promote dialogue between them. (Reference: International Energy Forum Charter, 2011.)

3. Dominance of states and national oil companies.

Unlike most markets, energy reserves are largely controlled by states and national oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, which hold most of the world's proven oil reserves. (Reference: Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2024; World Bank, National Oil Companies and Value Creation, 2011.)

4. A consumer club: the IEA.

The International Energy Agency, created in 1974 after the oil embargo, requires members to hold emergency oil stocks equal to 90 days of net imports and coordinate releases, as in 2022. Membership is limited to OECD countries. (Reference: Agreement on an International Energy Program, 1974; IEA collective actions, March and April 2022.)

5. Producer clubs: OPEC, OPEC+ and the GECF. OPEC (1960) and the wider OPEC+ group formed with Russia in 2016 manage oil supply to influence prices, while the Gas Exporting Countries Forum coordinates gas producers. (Reference: OPEC Statute; Declaration of Cooperation, December 2016; GECF Statute.)

6. Fusion with climate governance.

Energy is now governed largely through climate treaties. COP-28 in Dubai (2023) called for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", and IRENA, founded in 2009, promotes renewables. (Reference: UNFCCC, First Global Stocktake decision, COP-28, 2023; IRENA Statute.)

7. Weak voice of the Global South.

Hundreds of millions of people still lack electricity, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, yet developing countries have little say in the IEA and in setting energy finance rules. SDG 7 seeks to correct this. (Reference: IEA, IRENA, UN and World Bank, Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2024.)

8. New governance of transition minerals.

New initiatives such as the US-led Minerals Security Partnership (2022) and the UN Secretary-General's Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals (2024) show governance moving from oil to minerals. (Reference: US Department of State, Minerals Security Partnership; UN Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, report, September 2024.)

Critical assessment

Energy has always been a tool of power, and the transition to clean energy will not end geopolitics but change it. Oil states will lose influence slowly, while countries that control minerals and clean-tech manufacturing, above all China, will gain it. Global energy governance remains fragmented, dominated by clubs of producers and consumers and weakly linked to the needs of the poor. For Pakistan, which imports most of its oil and LNG, the lesson is clear: energy security requires diversified supplies, domestic renewables, regional projects such as CASA-1000 and TAPI, and a stronger voice in global forums.

Conclusion

Former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani famously remarked: "The Stone Age came to an end not for a lack of stones, and the oil age will end, but not for a lack of oil." The age of oil is giving way to an age of electricity, minerals and technology, but energy will remain central to power. Because no single body governs it, the world must build fairer, more inclusive and climate-friendly energy governance. Countries that prepare for this shift will shape the geopolitics of the future; those that do not will remain at the mercy of others.