CPEC is a flagship project of One Belt One Road (OBOR) and a regional game changer. Explain.

Introduction

Speaking at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan on 7 September 2013, President Xi Jinping said: "We should take an innovative approach and jointly build an economic belt along the Silk Road." A month later in Indonesia he proposed a "21st Century Maritime Silk Road." Among the six economic corridors of what was then called One Belt One Road (OBOR), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) became the flagship: the first to receive large-scale investment and the only one linking China's land routes directly to the Arabian Sea. Its supporters call it a game changer not only for Pakistan but for the entire region.

Overview

OBOR, renamed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2016, includes six land corridors: the New Eurasian Land Bridge, China-Mongolia-Russia, China-Central Asia-West Asia, China-Indochina Peninsula, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar and China-Pakistan. CPEC was formally launched during President Xi's visit to Islamabad in April 2015, with agreements initially worth about $46 billion, later expanded to over $60 billion. It runs about 3,000 kilometres from Kashgar in Xinjiang to Gwadar in Balochistan and includes energy projects, motorways, railways, a port and special economic zones.

Why CPEC is the flagship of OBOR

1. Bilateral trust.

China and Pakistan describe their friendship as "all-weather," and their strategic trust made Pakistan the natural partner for the first major BRI corridor. (Reference: Joint Statement on Establishing the All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership, April 2015.)

2. Scale of investment.

With investment commitments exceeding $60 billion, CPEC was larger than any other single corridor in the early years of the BRI. (Reference: CPEC Authority, project portfolio; Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.)

3. A land-sea link bypassing Malacca.

Around 80 percent of China's oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca, a vulnerability known as the "Malacca dilemma." CPEC offers a shorter route from the Gulf to western China via Gwadar. (Reference: Ian Storey, "China's Malacca Dilemma", China Brief, Jamestown Foundation, 2006; US Energy Information Administration, World Oil Transit Chokepoints.)

4. An early harvest.

CPEC's "early harvest" energy and infrastructure projects were completed faster than projects in most other corridors, showcasing the BRI's potential. (Reference: CPEC Authority, completed projects list; Long Term Plan for CPEC (2017-2030).)

Why CPEC is a regional game changer

1. Energy and infrastructure for Pakistan.

CPEC added thousands of megawatts of power generation and ended the severe load-shedding of the early 2010s, while motorways such as Sukkur-Multan (M-5) and the Karakoram Highway upgrade improved connectivity. (Reference: CPEC Authority, energy and transport projects; National Highway Authority.)

2. Gwadar as a regional port.

Gwadar, a deep-sea port near the Strait of Hormuz, can serve Pakistan, western China, Afghanistan and Central Asia, becoming a hub of regional trade. (Reference: Gwadar Port Authority; Gwadar Smart Port City Master Plan.)

3. Connectivity for Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Landlocked Central Asian states and Afghanistan can use CPEC routes to reach the sea, and the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway plan would link them to Pakistan's ports. (Reference: Ministry of Railways, UAP railway framework agreement, 2023; Shanghai Cooperation Organisation connectivity declarations.)

4. Western China's development.

CPEC helps China develop its landlocked western region of Xinjiang by giving it a shorter route to international markets. (Reference: Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, National Development and Reform Commission of China, March 2015.)

5. Trade with the Middle East and Africa.

CPEC shortens the route between China and the Gulf, Middle East and East Africa, making Pakistan a transit corridor for trade and energy. (Reference: Long Term Plan for CPEC (2017-2030).)

6. A shift from geopolitics to geo-economics.

CPEC places economic connectivity at the centre of Pakistan's strategy, a shift formalised in the National Security Policy 2022-2026. (Reference: National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026, section on geo-economics.)

7. Industrial cooperation and SEZs.

Phase II's special economic zones aim to relocate Chinese industries to Pakistan, creating jobs and exports. (Reference: CPEC Authority, Special Economic Zones reports; Special Economic Zones Act 2012.)

8. Reshaping regional alignments.

CPEC has deepened the China-Pakistan strategic partnership and attracted interest from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, while India opposes it because it passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, which India claims. (Reference: Ministry of External Affairs of India, statements on CPEC; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan, statements on third-party participation in CPEC.)

Challenges to the game changer

CPEC faces security threats in Balochistan and attacks on Chinese workers, slow progress on SEZs, concerns about debt and energy capacity payments, governance and transparency issues, local grievances in Gwadar and opposition from India and, at times, the United States. Realising its game-changing potential requires security, transparency, local ownership and timely implementation of Phase II.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif described CPEC in 2015 as a "game changer" for Pakistan and the region, and the label has stuck. As the flagship of OBOR, CPEC combines unmatched bilateral trust, large investment and a strategic route bypassing Malacca. As a regional game changer, it can transform Pakistan's energy and infrastructure, make Gwadar a hub for Central Asia, Afghanistan and western China, and shift Pakistan from geopolitics to geo-economics. Whether it fulfils this promise depends on security, transparency and the success of its industrial second phase.