How general elections in 2002, 2008 and 2013 strengthened democracy in Pakistan?

Introduction

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), Article 21(3), declares: "The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections." For Pakistan, which had lived under military rule for much of its history, the general elections of 2002, 2008 and 2013 marked a gradual return of that decision to the people. The 2002 elections, held under General Musharraf, revived parliament in a controlled form; the 2008 elections ended military rule; and the 2013 elections produced the first transfer of power from one elected government that completed its term to another. Together, they strengthened democracy, though each had serious shortcomings.

Overview

After the coup of October 1999, the Supreme Court gave Musharraf three years to hold elections. The October 2002 elections were held under the Legal Framework Order, with a graduation requirement for candidates and the PML-Q favoured by the regime. In February 2008, after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007, the PPP and PML-N won, and Musharraf resigned in August 2008. The PPP-led government became the first elected National Assembly to complete its five-year term, and in May 2013 the PML-N won, taking office through a peaceful democratic transition.

The 2002 elections: a guided return to parliamentary politics

The 2002 elections restored the National Assembly, Senate and provincial assemblies after three years of direct military rule. Seats reserved for women were raised to 60 in the National Assembly, and the voting age was lowered to 18. However, a graduation condition excluded many politicians, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were in exile, and observers reported official favouritism towards the PML-Q. (Reference: Conduct of General Elections Order 2002; European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report on the 2002 National and Provincial Elections in Pakistan.)

The 2008 elections: the end of military rule

Held in February 2008 after the lawyers' movement and Benazir Bhutto's assassination, the elections were won by the PPP and PML-N, which had signed the Charter of Democracy in 2006. Musharraf's allies were defeated, and facing impeachment, he resigned on 18 August 2008. (Reference: European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report on the 2008 Elections in Pakistan; Charter of Democracy, 14 May 2006.)

The 2013 elections: the first democratic transfer of power

On 11 May 2013, after the PPP government completed its full term, elections were held under a caretaker government appointed with the consensus of the government and opposition. Turnout rose to about 55 percent, the highest since 1970, and the PML-N formed the government, completing Pakistan's first civilian-to-civilian transfer of power. (Reference: Election Commission of Pakistan, General Elections 2013 Report; Constitution (Twentieth Amendment) Act 2012.)

How the three elections strengthened democracy

1. Restored elected institutions.

The 2002 elections revived Parliament and provincial assemblies after military rule, providing a platform for politics to resume. (Reference: Legal Framework Order 2002; Election Commission of Pakistan, results of the 2002 elections.)

2. Women's and minority representation.

Reserved seats for women (60 in the National Assembly and 17 in the Senate) and minorities, introduced from 2002, brought hundreds of women into legislatures, a lasting democratic gain. (Reference: Constitution of Pakistan, Articles 51 and 59; UN Women Pakistan reports.)

3. A peaceful exit for a military ruler.

The 2008 elections allowed the transition from military to civilian rule without bloodshed, and the new parliament forced Musharraf's resignation through constitutional means. (Reference: Ian Talbot, Pakistan: A New History, Hurst, 2012.)

4. Constitutional restoration through the 18th Amendment.

The parliament elected in 2008 unanimously passed the 18th Amendment (2010), restoring parliamentary democracy, abolishing Article 58(2)(b) and strengthening provincial autonomy. (Reference: Constitution (Eighteenth Amendment) Act 2010.)

5. The first civilian-to-civilian transfer.

The 2013 elections demonstrated that an elected government could complete its term and hand over power through the ballot, a milestone in Pakistan's democratic history. (Reference: Election Commission of Pakistan, General Elections 2013 Report.)

6. Stronger parties and opposition.

The return of exiled leaders, the Charter of Democracy and the emergence of the PTI as a major force in 2013 broadened political competition and strengthened the opposition's role. (Reference: Charter of Democracy, 2006; Election Commission of Pakistan, party position, 2013.)

7. Electoral reforms and an independent ECP.

The 18th and 20th Amendments strengthened the Election Commission's independence and created a consensus mechanism for appointing the Chief Election Commissioner and caretaker governments. (Reference: Constitution of Pakistan, Articles 213, 218 and 224A.)

8. Growing participation and media scrutiny.

Voter turnout rose from about 42 percent (2002) to 44 percent (2008) and 55 percent (2013), and an independent media and observer groups such as FAFEN monitored elections, increasing transparency. (Reference: Election Commission of Pakistan, turnout data; Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), election observation reports, 2008 and 2013.)

Limitations

The 2002 elections were controlled and produced a parliament dominated by a regime-backed party. The 2008 elections took place amid terrorism and the shadow of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. The 2013 elections were followed by rigging allegations, the 2014 PTI sit-in and a judicial commission, which found irregularities but no systematic rigging. These limits show that elections alone do not complete democracy, though they are its foundation. (Reference: Report of the 2013 General Elections Inquiry Commission, July 2015.)

Conclusion

President Franklin D. Roosevelt said in 1938: "Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education." The elections of 2002, 2008 and 2013 gave Pakistanis repeated practice in making that choice: from a guided democracy under a military ruler, to the end of military rule, to the first peaceful transfer of power between elected governments. They restored institutions, increased women's representation, enabled the 18th Amendment and strengthened the Election Commission. Their shortcomings show how much remains to be done, but they proved that Pakistan's people can change governments through the ballot rather than the bullet.