How do you see recent developments in the Middle East, particularly with reference to deteriorating relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran? What role, if any, Pakistan could play in reducing the tensions between the two Muslim countries?

Introduction

In a line popularised by Coleman Barks's translation, Maulana Rumi wrote: "Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing, there is a field. I'll meet you there." In January 2016, Saudi Arabia and Iran were far from any such meeting ground. The execution of a prominent Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia and the storming of the Saudi embassy in Tehran led Riyadh to cut diplomatic ties, bringing their long rivalry into the open at a time when the Middle East was already burning in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. For Pakistan, which has close ties with both countries and a population of Sunnis and Shias, the crisis was both a danger and an opportunity to act as a bridge.

Overview

The Arab Spring of 2011 toppled governments and unleashed civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen. Saudi Arabia and Iran backed opposite sides: Iran supported the Assad government, Hezbollah and the Houthis, while Saudi Arabia supported Syrian rebels and the Yemeni government. The rise of ISIS in 2014 added another layer of conflict. By 2015–2016, the Middle East was divided along geopolitical and sectarian lines, with Saudi Arabia and Iran as the principal rivals.

Recent developments and the deterioration in Saudi-Iran relations (2015–2016)

1. The Yemen war.

In March 2015, a Saudi-led coalition began military operations against the Iran-aligned Houthis, who had seized Sanaa, turning Yemen into a major proxy battlefield and humanitarian disaster. (Reference: UN Security Council resolution 2216 (2015); UN OCHA, Yemen humanitarian reports, 2015–2016.)

2. The Syrian war.

Iranian forces, Hezbollah and, from September 2015, Russia supported Assad, while Saudi Arabia backed opposition groups, deepening their confrontation in Syria. (Reference: UN Special Envoy for Syria briefings; International Syria Support Group statements, 2015–2016.)

3. The Iran nuclear deal.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (July 2015), implemented in January 2016, lifted many sanctions on Iran, alarming Saudi Arabia, which feared a stronger Iran and a US tilt towards Tehran. (Reference: JCPOA, Vienna, 14 July 2015; UN Security Council resolution 2231 (2015).)

4. The Mina tragedy.

A crush during the Hajj at Mina in September 2015 killed many pilgrims, including hundreds of Iranians, and Iran accused Saudi Arabia of mismanagement, poisoning relations. (Reference: Saudi Ministry of Health and Iranian government statements, September–October 2015.)

5. Execution of Sheikh Nimr and the embassy attack.

On 2 January 2016, Saudi Arabia executed Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr along with 46 others; protesters then stormed and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. (Reference: Saudi Ministry of Interior statement, 2 January 2016; UN Security Council press statement condemning the attack on the embassy, 4 January 2016.)

6. Severing of ties.

Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic relations with Iran on 3 January 2016, followed by Bahrain and Sudan, while the UAE downgraded ties, widening the rift across the region. (Reference: Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement, 3 January 2016.)

7. Oil price competition.

With oil prices falling below US$30 a barrel in early 2016, Saudi Arabia refused to cut output, partly to deny Iran gains from its post-sanctions return to the oil market. (Reference: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Reports, 2016; IEA Oil Market Reports, 2016.)

8. Sectarian polarisation.

Political rivalry fed sectarian narratives across the Muslim world, threatening social harmony in countries with mixed populations, including Pakistan, Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain. (Reference: International Crisis Group, Middle East reports, 2016; Vali Nasr, The Shia Revival, 2006.)

The role Pakistan could play in reducing tensions

1. Shuttle diplomacy.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and army chief General Raheel Sharif visited Riyadh and Tehran on 18–19 January 2016 to urge restraint, showing that Pakistan is trusted by both. Such diplomacy should be sustained, not occasional. (Reference: Prime Minister's Office of Pakistan statements, 18–19 January 2016.)

2. Principled neutrality.

Pakistan's parliament voted in April 2015 to stay neutral in Yemen, which gave Pakistan credibility as an honest broker. It must avoid joining any side in the rivalry. (Reference: Joint resolution of the Parliament of Pakistan, 10 April 2015.)

3. Using the OIC.

As a founding and influential OIC member, Pakistan can push for an OIC contact mechanism or a summit on reducing tensions between member states. (Reference: OIC Charter, 2008, objectives on settlement of disputes among member states.)

4. Religious scholars and Hajj diplomacy.

Pakistan can bring Sunni and Shia scholars together, building on its own experience of inter-sectarian councils, and help resolve Hajj-related issues. (Reference: Milli Yakjehti Council, Pakistan; Council of Islamic Ideology.)

5. Track-II and back-channel facilitation.

Pakistani think tanks, former diplomats and retired officers can host quiet meetings between Saudi and Iranian counterparts away from public pressure. (Reference: Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) and Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) dialogue programmes.)

6. Coordinating with other mediators.

Pakistan can work with countries that also talk to both sides, such as Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Turkey and China, to build a joint mediation effort. (Reference: Omani and Kuwaiti mediation roles in Gulf disputes; later Iraqi-hosted talks, 2021.)

7. Economic bridges.

Projects such as the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, along with Saudi investments in Pakistan, can give both a stake in regional stability through Pakistan. (Reference: Iran-Pakistan Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement, 2009; Saudi-Pakistan investment agreements.)

8. Preventing spillover at home.

By enforcing the National Action Plan against sectarian hate speech and foreign funding of sectarian groups, Pakistan shows both countries it will not become their battleground. (Reference: National Action Plan 2014, points 5, 6 and 18.)

Assessment in hindsight

Pakistan's 2016 mediation eased the immediate crisis but could not restore relations, and Prime Minister Imran Khan's visits to both capitals in 2019 had a similar result. Saudi Arabia and Iran finally restored relations through talks hosted by Iraq and Oman and a deal brokered by China in March 2023. This showed that mediation succeeds when both rivals are ready, and that Pakistan's role is most effective in quiet facilitation and in keeping its own neutrality.

Conclusion

Nelson Mandela wrote in Long Walk to Freedom (1994): "If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner." The events of 2015–2016, from Yemen and Syria to the execution of Sheikh Nimr and the breaking of ties, brought Saudi-Iran relations to their lowest point and endangered the whole Muslim world. Pakistan, trusted by both and vulnerable to their rivalry, could play a meaningful role through neutrality, shuttle diplomacy, the OIC, religious scholars and economic bridges. Its greatest contribution is to remain a friend to both and a battleground for neither.