Pakistan is considered to be the fifth-largest youth bulge country in the world. Given this youth bulge, deliberate on ways forward for Sustainable Economic Development in Pakistan.

Introduction

The first Human Development Report of the UNDP, guided by Pakistan's own Mahbub ul Haq, opened in 1990 with the words: "People are the real wealth of a nation." Pakistan's greatest wealth is its young people. According to the UNDP, about 64 percent of Pakistanis are under the age of 30 and 29 percent are aged between 15 and 29. This youth bulge can become a demographic dividend that drives growth for decades, as it did in East Asia, or a demographic burden of unemployment, frustration and unrest. Which it becomes depends on the choices Pakistan makes now in education, skills, jobs and governance.

Overview

Pakistan's population reached about 241.5 million in the 2023 census, growing at about 2.55 percent a year, among the fastest rates in Asia. The UNDP's National Human Development Report 2017, titled Unleashing the Potential of a Young Pakistan, warned that Pakistan must create about 0.9 million jobs every year to absorb new entrants into the labour market. Meanwhile, millions of children remain out of school, female labour force participation is among the lowest in the world, and record numbers of educated young people are leaving the country. Sustainable economic development will be possible only if Pakistan turns its youth into a productive, skilled and engaged workforce.

Challenges of the youth bulge

1. Out-of-school children.

About 26 million children aged 5 to 16 are out of school, one of the highest numbers in the world, so a large part of the future workforce will lack basic skills. (Reference: Pakistan Institute of Education, Pakistan Education Statistics 2021-22.)

2. A mismatch between education and skills.

Universities produce graduates in fields with few jobs, while industry and IT firms report shortages of technical and digital skills. Technical and vocational training reaches only a small share of young people. (Reference: NAVTTC, National Skills Strategy; Higher Education Commission, graduate employability studies.)

3. Youth unemployment.

Unemployment is highest among young people, and among educated youth it is higher still, because the economy does not create enough formal jobs. (Reference: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force Survey 2020-21.)

4. Low female participation.

Female labour force participation is only about one in four women, which means half of the youth bulge contributes far less than it could to the economy. (Reference: World Bank, Pakistan Gender Assessment; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force Survey 2020-21.)

5. Brain drain.

More than 800,000 Pakistanis registered to work abroad in each of 2022 and 2023, including many doctors, engineers and IT professionals, draining the country of skills. (Reference: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment, annual emigration statistics, 2022-2023.)

6. Rapid population growth.

A total fertility rate of about 3.6 children per woman keeps adding to the young population faster than schools, health facilities and jobs can expand. (Reference: National Institute of Population Studies, Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Census 2023.)

7. Radicalisation and unrest.

Unemployed and frustrated young people are vulnerable to extremist recruitment, crime and political violence, which undermines stability and investment. (Reference: UNDP, Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017; National Internal Security Policy 2018-2023.)

8. A weak youth voice in policy.

Young people have little representation in parliament and policy-making, and national youth policies have been poorly implemented. (Reference: UNDP, Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017; provincial youth policies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.)

Ways forward for sustainable economic development

1. Quality education for all.

Enforcing Article 25A, bringing out-of-school children into classrooms, improving teacher quality and raising education spending towards 4 percent of GDP would build the foundation of a productive workforce. (Reference: Constitution of Pakistan, Article 25A; National Education Policy Framework 2018.)

2. Market-driven skills.

Technical and vocational training linked to industry needs, apprenticeships and certification, as through NAVTTC's Hunarmand Pakistan programme, would make young people employable at home and abroad. (Reference: NAVTTC, Hunarmand Pakistan programme documents; National Skills Strategy.)

3. The digital economy and IT exports.

Pakistan has one of the world's largest freelancing communities, and IT and IT-enabled services exports reached about $3.2 billion in FY2024. Training in coding, artificial intelligence and digital services, with reliable internet, can multiply this. (Reference: Pakistan Software Export Board and State Bank of Pakistan, IT export data; Ministry of IT and Telecommunication, Digital Pakistan Policy 2018.)

4. Entrepreneurship and finance.

Easy loans, incubators and venture capital would help young people create jobs rather than seek them. The Prime Minister's Youth Business and Agriculture Loan Scheme and the National Incubation Centres are steps in this direction. (Reference: Prime Minister's Youth Programme, loan scheme documents; Ignite National Technology Fund, National Incubation Centres.)

5. Women in the workforce.

Safe transport, daycare, flexible and remote work and protection against harassment would bring more young women into paid work, adding significantly to GDP. (Reference: Protection against Harassment of Women at the Workplace (Amendment) Act 2022; World Bank, Pakistan Gender Assessment.)

6. Managed overseas employment.

Skilled migration to the Gulf, Europe and East Asia, through agreements such as Japan's Specified Skilled Worker programme, can earn remittances, which exceeded $30 billion in FY2024, while reducing unemployment at home. (Reference: Bureau of Emigration and Overseas Employment; State Bank of Pakistan, workers' remittances data.)

7. Green jobs.

Renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture, reforestation and waste management can employ young people while protecting the environment, as the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami programme's "green stimulus" showed in 2020. (Reference: International Labour Organization, reports on green jobs in Pakistan, 2020; Ministry of Climate Change, Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Programme.)

8. Youth participation and population planning.

Student unions, youth councils and quotas for young candidates would give youth a voice, while family planning and girls' education would slow population growth and lock in the demographic dividend. (Reference: National Youth Policy 2008; Council of Common Interests decisions on population, 2018.)

Conclusion

Allama Iqbal wrote in Bal-e-Jibril: "Mohabbat mujhe un jawanon se hai, sitaron pe jo dalte hain kamand" (I love those young people who cast their lassos at the stars). Pakistan's young people have that ambition, as their success in freelancing, sports, science and enterprise shows. But ambition needs opportunity. Out-of-school children, mismatched skills, unemployment, low female participation and brain drain threaten to waste the youth bulge. With quality education, market-driven skills, a booming digital economy, support for entrepreneurs and women, and a real voice in policy, Pakistan can turn its youth into the engine of sustainable economic development.