"The population growth in Pakistan can erupt like an atomic bomb". Comment

Introduction

In 1968, Paul Ehrlich opened The Population Bomb with a stark warning: "The battle to feed all of humanity is over." His specific predictions proved wrong for much of the world, but the comparison of unchecked population growth to a bomb remains apt for Pakistan. The 2023 census counted about 241.5 million people, growing at about 2.55 percent a year, one of the highest rates in Asia. At this pace, Pakistan could have around 400 million people by 2050. Without urgent action, rapid growth will overwhelm water, food, jobs, schools and cities, with consequences as destructive as an explosion, though slower to unfold.

Overview

The first census of 1951 recorded about 34 million people in present-day Pakistan. The population roughly doubled by 1981 (84 million), reached about 208 million in 2017 and 241.5 million in 2023. Pakistan's total fertility rate, about 3.6 children per woman in 2017-18, is far higher than in Bangladesh (around 2) or Iran (below 2). Family planning has existed since the 1960s, but contraceptive use has stagnated at around 34 percent of married women. In 2018 the Supreme Court took notice of rapid population growth, and the Council of Common Interests approved recommendations of a national task force.

Why population growth is like a ticking bomb

1. Pressure on food and water.

Water availability per person has fallen from about 5,000 cubic metres in 1951 to close to 1,000, the scarcity threshold, and Pakistan already imports wheat and edible oil. More people mean less food and water per person. (Reference: Ministry of Water Resources, National Water Policy 2018; Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24, chapter on agriculture.)

2. Unemployment.

Millions of young people enter the labour market each year, and the economy does not create enough jobs, raising unemployment and underemployment. (Reference: UNDP, Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017; Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force Survey 2020-21.)

3. Education and health systems overwhelmed.

About 26 million children are out of school, and hospitals and teachers cannot keep pace with population growth. (Reference: Pakistan Institute of Education, Pakistan Education Statistics 2021-22; Ministry of National Health Services, health facility data.)

4. Unplanned urbanisation.

Cities such as Karachi and Lahore have grown rapidly with slums (katchi abadis), traffic congestion, pollution and inadequate water and sanitation. (Reference: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Census 2023 urban data; UN-Habitat, Pakistan urban profile.)

5. Poverty and inequality.

Large families in poor households perpetuate poverty, as resources are spread thin and children leave school early to work. (Reference: Planning Commission and UNDP, Multidimensional Poverty in Pakistan, 2016; World Bank, Pakistan Poverty Assessment.)

6. Environmental degradation.

Population pressure drives deforestation, overuse of groundwater, loss of farmland to housing and pollution, increasing vulnerability to climate change. (Reference: Ministry of Climate Change, National Climate Change Policy 2021.)

7. Strain on public finances.

A growing population demands more spending on subsidies, schools, health and infrastructure, while the tax base remains narrow. (Reference: Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24, chapter on population.)

8. Security and social unrest.

Large numbers of unemployed and frustrated youth can fuel crime, extremism and political unrest, turning a potential demographic dividend into a demographic disaster. (Reference: UNDP, Pakistan National Human Development Report 2017; National Security Policy of Pakistan 2022-2026.)

Causes of high population growth

High fertility persists because of low female education, early marriage, a preference for sons, high child mortality (which encourages larger families), limited access to family planning services, misconceptions about religious views on contraception, and the absence of sustained political commitment. After the 18th Amendment, population welfare became a provincial subject, and coordination between federal and provincial governments weakened. (Reference: National Institute of Population Studies, Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18.)

Way forward: defusing the bomb

1. Political ownership.

Population must be treated as a national emergency. The CCI's 2018 decisions created a National Task Force and called for a national narrative on population. (Reference: Council of Common Interests, decisions of 19 November 2018; Supreme Court of Pakistan, suo motu proceedings on population growth, 2018.)

2. Universal access to family planning.

Contraceptive services should be available in every Basic Health Unit and through lady health workers, reducing the unmet need, which affects about 17 percent of married women. (Reference: Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18; FP2030 Pakistan commitments.)

3. Girls' education and women's empowerment.

Educated women marry later and have fewer, healthier children. Enforcing Article 25A for girls is one of the most effective population policies. (Reference: Constitution of Pakistan, Article 25A; UNFPA, State of World Population 2023.)

4. Involving religious scholars.

Ulema can explain that Islam allows birth spacing, as Bangladesh and Iran did, countering misconceptions. Al-Azhar and other institutions have supported family planning. (Reference: UNFPA Pakistan, engagement with religious leaders; Al-Azhar University fatwas on family planning.)

5. Health and child survival.

Reducing child mortality through immunisation and nutrition gives parents confidence to have fewer children. (Reference: Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18, child mortality data.)

6. Integrating population with development.

Population targets should be part of economic planning, budgets and the NFC formula, which currently rewards population size. (Reference: 7th NFC Award, 2010, population weight of 82 percent; Planning Commission, 13th Five-Year Plan 2024-29.)

7. Data and local planning.

Timely census data and district-level planning help target services where fertility is highest. (Reference: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 7th Population and Housing Census 2023, the first digital census.)

8. Lessons from Bangladesh and Iran.

Bangladesh reduced its fertility rate from about 6 in the 1970s to around 2 through community health workers and women's empowerment, and Iran achieved one of the fastest fertility declines in history with religious support. (Reference: World Bank, World Development Indicators, fertility data; Population Reference Bureau, studies on Iran's family planning programme.)

Conclusion

At the World Population Conference in Bucharest in 1974, India's delegate Karan Singh famously declared: "Development is the best contraceptive." Pakistan needs both development and direct action, because population growth that outruns every economic gain makes development itself impossible. Pakistan's rapid population growth is indeed like a bomb, threatening food, water, jobs, education and stability. But it can be defused through political commitment, family planning, girls' education, religious support and better health. If Pakistan acts now, its large young population can become a demographic dividend rather than a disaster.