Having the largest irrigation system in the world, the land of the sub-continent served as the main food supply basket for the British power for more than a century, but now Pakistan has to import food commodities. Discuss in detail the causes of this agricultural decline.

Introduction

George Washington is often quoted as calling agriculture "the most healthful, most useful, and most noble employment of man." For the land of the Indus, agriculture was also the source of prosperity: under British rule the canal colonies of Punjab made it the granary of India. Today Pakistan, which still has the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world, spends billions of dollars every year importing wheat, edible oil, pulses and other food. This paradox is the result of decades of neglect: fragmented land, wasted water, outdated methods, weak research and now climate change. Understanding these causes is essential for restoring Pakistan's food security.

Overview

From the 1880s the British built canals and settled the canal colonies of Lyallpur, Montgomery and Sargodha, which turned the barren bars of Punjab into fertile farmland. After independence, the Indus Waters Treaty (1960) and the Tarbela and Mangla dams expanded irrigation, and the Green Revolution of the 1960s raised wheat output sharply. Yet growth slowed in later decades. Agriculture still contributes about 24 percent of GDP and employs about 37 percent of the labour force, but yields of wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane lag far behind those of comparable countries. Pakistan's food import bill reached about $9 billion in FY2022, and the country imported wheat in several recent years.

Causes of agricultural decline

1. Small and fragmented landholdings.

Repeated division of land through inheritance has left most farms tiny. About two-thirds of farms are smaller than five acres, which makes mechanisation, investment and modern techniques uneconomical. (Reference: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Agricultural Census 2010.)

2. Water losses and shortage.

A large share of canal water is lost through seepage in unlined watercourses and through flood irrigation in the fields. Storage capacity is limited to about 30 days of flow, and over-pumping of groundwater is lowering water tables in Punjab and Balochistan. (Reference: Ministry of Water Resources, National Water Policy 2018; Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, groundwater reports.)

3. Waterlogging and salinity.

Seepage from canals raised the water table, and poor drainage left salts in the soil. Millions of acres are affected by waterlogging and salinity despite the SCARP tube-well programme begun in the 1960s. (Reference: WAPDA, Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARP) reports; IWMI, studies on soil salinity in the Indus Basin.)

4. Poor seeds and low-quality inputs.

Only a small share of farmers use certified seed, while counterfeit pesticides and adulterated fertiliser are widespread. Low use of quality inputs keeps yields well below their potential. (Reference: Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department reports; Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2022-23, chapter on agriculture.)

5. Neglect of research and extension.

Spending on agricultural research is a tiny fraction of agricultural GDP, and extension services have weakened, so new varieties and practices rarely reach farmers. Pakistan's wheat yield remains far below that of China and Egypt. (Reference: Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) annual reports; FAO, FAOSTAT crop yield data.)

6. Climate change and disasters.

Heatwaves cut wheat yields in 2022, and the floods of 2022 destroyed millions of acres of crops and killed about one million livestock. Erratic rainfall, pests such as the 2019-20 locust attack, and changing seasons add to the risk. (Reference: Pakistan Floods 2022: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, October 2022; FAO, Desert Locust situation updates, 2020.)

7. Urban encroachment and population pressure.

Fertile land around Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan and Peshawar is being converted into housing societies, while the population has grown to over 241 million, increasing food demand faster than production. (Reference: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 7th Population and Housing Census 2023; Lahore High Court judgment in the Ravi Urban Development Authority case, January 2022.)

8. Weak markets, credit and storage.

Small farmers depend on middlemen (arhtis) for credit and sales, receive low prices and lack access to formal loans. Poor storage causes heavy post-harvest losses, and erratic support-price policies distort cropping, encouraging water-intensive sugarcane at the expense of other crops. (Reference: State Bank of Pakistan, agricultural credit data; Report of the Sugar Inquiry Commission, Government of Pakistan, May 2020.)

Way forward

1. Modern technology and certified seeds.

High-yielding and heat-tolerant varieties, hybrid seeds and mechanisation, supported by subsidies for small farmers, can raise yields substantially. (Reference: National Food Security Policy 2018, Ministry of National Food Security and Research.)

2. Efficient irrigation.

Lining watercourses, laser land levelling and drip and sprinkler systems save water. Punjab's high-efficiency irrigation programmes show that yields can rise while water use falls. (Reference: World Bank, Punjab Irrigated-Agriculture Productivity Improvement Project (PIPIP) documents.)

3. Land consolidation and cooperative farming.

Consolidating fragmented plots, encouraging farmer cooperatives and developing barren state land through corporate farming, as under the Green Pakistan Initiative (2023), can bring economies of scale. (Reference: Government of Pakistan, Green Pakistan Initiative, launched July 2023.)

4. Revitalised research and extension.

Higher funding for PARC and provincial research institutes, and digital advisory services through mobile phones, can carry research to the field. (Reference: Pakistan Agricultural Research Council strategic plan; National Food Security Policy 2018.)

5. Credit and crop insurance.

Easier loans for small farmers and wider crop insurance can protect them from shocks. The Kissan Package (2022) and the Kissan Card schemes are steps in this direction. (Reference: Finance Division, Kissan Package 2022; State Bank of Pakistan, Crop Loan Insurance Scheme.)

6. Storage and value chains.

Modern silos, cold storage and agro-processing would reduce waste and raise farm incomes, while electronic markets can cut out exploitative middlemen. (Reference: Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO) reports; FAO, Food Loss and Waste studies.)

7. Protecting farmland.

Land-use zoning that bans housing schemes on fertile agricultural land must be enforced in every province. (Reference: Punjab Land Use (Classification, Reclassification and Redevelopment) Rules 2009; Lahore High Court orders on agricultural land conversion.)

8. Climate-resilient agriculture.

Adapting sowing dates, promoting drought-tolerant crops, early-warning systems and livestock insurance would reduce climate losses. (Reference: Ministry of Climate Change, National Adaptation Plan 2023.)

Conclusion

Norman Borlaug, father of the Green Revolution that once transformed Pakistan's wheat fields, said in his 1970 Nobel Peace Prize lecture: "If you desire peace, cultivate justice, but at the same time cultivate the fields to produce more bread; otherwise there will be no peace." Pakistan's agricultural decline is not a matter of soil or sun, which remain abundant, but of policy, technology and management. Fragmented land, wasted water, poor seeds, weak research, encroachment and climate change have turned a food basket into a food importer. With modern technology, efficient water use, research, credit and protection of farmland, Pakistan can once again feed itself and export food to the world.