Global warming presents an existential threat to states like Pakistan. Examine the far-reaching impacts of global warming on Pakistan and propose a model of economic development that aligns with environmental protection.

Introduction

At the UN Climate Summit in September 2014, US President Barack Obama said: "We are the first generation to feel the effect of climate change and the last generation who can do something about it." For Pakistan this is not a distant warning but a lived reality. A country that contributes less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions is among the ten most vulnerable to climate change. The floods of 2022 showed that global warming can wipe out years of development in a single season. Pakistan therefore needs to understand its full impact and adopt a model of growth that protects the environment while lifting people out of poverty.

Overview

Pakistan sits where the glaciers of the Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush feed the Indus, which supplies most of the country's water and its irrigated agriculture. Germanwatch's Global Climate Risk Index 2021 ranked Pakistan 8th among countries most affected by extreme weather from 2000 to 2019. The 2022 monsoon floods submerged about a third of the country, affected 33 million people and killed more than 1,700. The World Bank's Country Climate and Development Report (2022) warned that climate change and environmental degradation could reduce Pakistan's GDP by 18 to 20 percent by 2050. Pakistan has responded with the National Climate Change Policy (2021), updated Nationally Determined Contributions (2021) and a National Adaptation Plan (2023), but implementation and finance remain weak.

Far-reaching impacts of global warming on Pakistan

1. Catastrophic floods.

Warmer air holds more moisture, making monsoon rains heavier. The 2022 floods caused damages of $14.9 billion and losses of $15.2 billion, and needed $16.3 billion for recovery and reconstruction. Earlier floods in 2010 affected over 20 million people. (Reference: Government of Pakistan, Asian Development Bank, EU, UNDP and World Bank, Pakistan Floods 2022: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment, October 2022.)

2. Glacier melt and glacial lake outburst floods.

Pakistan has more than 7,000 glaciers. As they retreat, they form lakes; over 3,000 glacial lakes have formed in the north, and dozens are at risk of sudden outburst, which threatens villages, roads and bridges in Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, such as the Hassanabad bridge collapse in May 2022. (Reference: UNDP Pakistan and Ministry of Climate Change, GLOF-II Project documents; ICIMOD, The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment, 2019.)

3. Deadly heatwaves.

The June 2015 Karachi heatwave killed more than 1,200 people, and in May 2022 Jacobabad recorded temperatures above 50°C, among the highest in the world. Heat reduces labour productivity and strains the power grid. (Reference: National Disaster Management Authority, report on the Karachi heatwave 2015; Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pakistan Monthly Climate Summary, May 2022.)

4. Water scarcity.

Per capita water availability has fallen from about 5,000 cubic metres in 1951 to close to 1,000 cubic metres, the threshold of water scarcity. Changing snowmelt and erratic rainfall make flows less predictable, while storage capacity is only about 30 days of river flow. (Reference: Ministry of Water Resources, National Water Policy 2018; Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources reports.)

5. Agriculture and food security.

Agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP and employs about 37 percent of the workforce. Heat stress, floods and pests reduce yields of wheat, rice and cotton; the 2022 floods destroyed over 4 million acres of crops. (Reference: Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24, chapter on agriculture; Pakistan Floods 2022 PDNA.)

6. Economic losses and debt.

Disasters destroy infrastructure, cut exports and force borrowing for reconstruction, deepening Pakistan's debt crisis. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan needs about $348 billion of investment between 2023 and 2030 for climate resilience and development. (Reference: World Bank, Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report, November 2022.)

7. Public health.

After the 2022 floods, cases of malaria, dengue, cholera and diarrhoea surged, and stagnant water created breeding grounds for disease. Urban smog in Lahore and other Punjab cities causes respiratory illness every winter. (Reference: World Health Organization, Pakistan Floods Situation Reports, 2022; IQAir, World Air Quality Report 2023.)

8. Coastal erosion, displacement and security.

Sea intrusion has destroyed vast areas of agricultural land in the Indus Delta in Thatta and Badin, forcing migration to cities. Climate stress also fuels competition over water between provinces and with India, making climate a security issue. (Reference: WWF-Pakistan, Indus Delta studies; Government of Pakistan, National Security Policy 2022-2026, section on climate and water security.)

A model of economic development aligned with environmental protection

1. A renewable energy transition.

Pakistan should cut its reliance on imported oil and LNG by expanding solar, wind and hydropower, in line with its target of 60 percent clean energy by 2030. Rooftop solar and the Sindh wind corridor can save foreign exchange while reducing emissions. (Reference: Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019; Pakistan's Updated Nationally Determined Contributions, 2021.)

2. Climate-smart agriculture.

Heat-tolerant seed varieties, laser land levelling, drip and sprinkler irrigation, crop insurance and better weather advisories can raise yields while saving water. (Reference: FAO and Ministry of National Food Security and Research, Climate-Smart Agriculture in Pakistan profile; National Adaptation Plan 2023.)

3. Water efficiency and storage.

Lining canals, metering groundwater, pricing water realistically and building storage such as Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand dams would protect against both floods and drought. (Reference: National Water Policy 2018; WAPDA project documents.)

4. Nature-based solutions.

Restoring forests, wetlands and mangroves reduces floods and absorbs carbon. The Living Indus Initiative, launched in 2022, and the Recharge Pakistan project, financed by the Green Climate Fund, aim to restore the Indus basin's ecosystems, while the Ten Billion Tree Tsunami programme has expanded forest cover. (Reference: Ministry of Climate Change and UN Pakistan, Living Indus Initiative, 2022; Green Climate Fund, Recharge Pakistan funding proposal (with WWF-Pakistan and the Ministry of Climate Change).)

5. Green industry and electric mobility.

Energy-efficiency standards, cleaner brick kilns, circular economy practices and a shift to electric motorcycles, buses and rickshaws can cut urban pollution and fuel imports. (Reference: National Electric Vehicle Policy 2019; National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority (NEECA) standards.)

6. Climate-resilient infrastructure and cities.

New roads, bridges and housing should be built to resist floods and heat, and building on riverbeds and waterways must be banned. Urban planning should include green spaces and heat action plans. (Reference: Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), Government of Pakistan, December 2022.)

7. Green finance.

Pakistan should use green bonds, debt-for-nature swaps, carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the new Loss and Damage Fund, which Pakistan helped create as chair of the G-77 at COP27 in 2022. WAPDA's $500 million green Eurobond of 2021 showed that markets will finance clean projects. (Reference: UNFCCC, COP27 decision on funding arrangements for loss and damage, Sharm el-Sheikh, 2022; WAPDA press release on the Green Eurobond, May 2021.)

8. Strong climate governance.

The Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017 created a Climate Change Council and Authority, but they need to function fully. Climate budgeting, provincial capacity after the 18th Amendment and data-based early warning systems would make policy effective. (Reference: Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017; National Climate Change Policy 2021.)

Conclusion

After touring the flood-hit areas in September 2022, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said: "I have never seen climate carnage on this scale." Global warming threatens Pakistan's water, food, health, economy and security all at once, even though Pakistan did little to cause it. The answer is not to choose between growth and the environment but to combine them: clean energy, smart agriculture, careful water management, restored ecosystems, resilient infrastructure and green finance, backed by strong institutions. Such a model would protect the country's people and turn a threat to its existence into an opportunity for sustainable prosperity.