What policy options should Pakistan exercise to effectively address its vulnerability to the phenomenon of global warming?

Introduction

UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the 2022 floods in Pakistan "a monsoon on steroids." Pakistan contributes less than 1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions but ranks among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing floods, heatwaves, glacier melt, droughts and sea-level rise. Its vulnerability stems not only from geography but from poverty, weak infrastructure and limited institutional capacity. Since Pakistan cannot stop global warming alone, its policy choices must focus above all on adaptation and resilience, while contributing to mitigation and using diplomacy to secure finance and justice.

Overview

Germanwatch's Global Climate Risk Index 2021 placed Pakistan 8th among the countries most affected by extreme weather between 2000 and 2019. The 2022 floods affected 33 million people and caused about $30 billion in damages and losses. Temperatures in Jacobabad have exceeded 50°C, and the country has more than 7,000 glaciers feeding the Indus. Pakistan has adopted the National Climate Change Policy (2021), updated NDCs (2021) and the National Adaptation Plan (2023), but implementation, funding and coordination remain weak.

Policy options for adaptation

1. Early warning and disaster preparedness.

Expanding weather radars, flood forecasting and glacial lake monitoring, and linking warnings to evacuation plans, can save thousands of lives. The UN's Early Warnings for All initiative includes Pakistan. (Reference: UNDP and Ministry of Climate Change, GLOF-II Project; WMO, Early Warnings for All initiative, 2022.)

2. Climate-resilient infrastructure.

Roads, bridges, schools and houses should be built to withstand floods and heat, and construction in riverbeds and floodplains must be banned. (Reference: Government of Pakistan, Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework (4RF), December 2022.)

3. Water storage and efficiency.

Building dams and small reservoirs, recharging groundwater, lining canals and promoting drip irrigation would protect against both floods and droughts. (Reference: National Water Policy 2018; Recharge Pakistan project, Green Climate Fund.)

4. Climate-smart agriculture.

Heat- and drought-tolerant seeds, adjusted sowing dates, crop insurance and agro-advisory services can protect food security. (Reference: Ministry of National Food Security and Research and FAO, Climate-Smart Agriculture programme; National Adaptation Plan 2023.)

5. Heat action plans for cities.

Karachi's Heat Wave Management Plan, introduced after the 2015 heatwave, shows how cooling centres, warnings and hospital preparedness reduce deaths; every major city needs one, along with urban greening. (Reference: Commissioner Karachi, Heat Wave Management Plan, 2016; NDMA heatwave guidelines.)

6. Protecting coasts and ecosystems.

Restoring mangroves in the Indus Delta, reforestation and protecting wetlands provide natural defences against storms, floods and erosion; Sindh's mangrove cover has expanded through restoration programmes. (Reference: Sindh Forest Department, mangrove restoration data; Living Indus Initiative, 2022.)

7. Social protection for climate shocks.

Expanding the Benazir Income Support Programme to provide rapid cash support after disasters, as during the 2022 floods, protects the poorest. (Reference: BISP, flood relief cash transfers, 2022; World Bank, Adaptive Social Protection reports.)

8. Health system preparedness.

Preparing for heatstroke, dengue, malaria and waterborne diseases after floods requires surveillance and resilient health facilities. (Reference: World Health Organization, Pakistan Floods Situation Reports, 2022.)

Policy options for mitigation, finance and diplomacy

1. Clean energy transition.

Meeting the target of 60 percent clean energy by 2030 through solar, wind and hydropower would reduce emissions and import bills. (Reference: Government of Pakistan, Updated Nationally Determined Contributions, 2021; Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019.)

2. Climate finance and debt swaps.

Pakistan needs large investments; the World Bank estimated around $348 billion between 2023 and 2030. Green bonds, debt-for-climate swaps and access to the Green Climate Fund can help. (Reference: World Bank, Pakistan Country Climate and Development Report, November 2022.)

3. Climate diplomacy and loss and damage.

As chair of the G-77 in 2022, Pakistan helped secure agreement on a Loss and Damage Fund at COP27; it should press for its capitalisation and fair access. At the Geneva conference of January 2023, donors pledged over $9 billion for flood recovery. (Reference: UNFCCC, COP27 decision on loss and damage, 2022; International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan, Geneva, 9 January 2023.)

4. Governance, data and provincial capacity.

Making the Pakistan Climate Change Council and Authority functional, introducing climate budgeting and strengthening provincial departments after the 18th Amendment would turn plans into action. (Reference: Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017; National Climate Change Policy 2021.)

Conclusion

The Paris Agreement (2015) commits parties to "increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience." For Pakistan, adaptation is a matter of survival. The most effective policy options combine early warning, resilient infrastructure, water management, climate-smart agriculture, urban heat plans, ecosystem protection and social protection with a clean energy transition, new climate finance and active diplomacy. Backed by strong governance and provincial capacity, these policies can reduce Pakistan's vulnerability and protect its people from the worst effects of global warming.