Discuss the adverse impact of climate change on the world and the measures recently adopted by the Paris Conference to address this issue.

Introduction

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon declared at the People's Climate March in September 2014: "There is no Plan B because we do not have a planet B." Climate change, driven mainly by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, is the defining challenge of our time. Rising temperatures, rising seas and more extreme weather threaten every nation, but they hit the poor and vulnerable hardest. After two decades of difficult negotiations, the world reached a historic agreement at the Paris Climate Conference (COP21) in December 2015, which for the first time committed almost every country to act.

Overview

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, set the goal of preventing dangerous interference with the climate system. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) imposed binding targets only on developed countries, and the US never ratified it. The Copenhagen conference (2009) failed to produce a binding deal. In Paris, from 30 November to 12 December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement, which entered into force on 4 November 2016, less than a year later. By then, 2015 had become the warmest year on record, soon to be overtaken by 2016.

Adverse impact of climate change on the world

1. Rising temperatures.

Global average temperature had risen by about 1°C above pre-industrial levels by 2016, with more frequent and severe heatwaves, such as the 2015 Karachi heatwave, which killed more than a thousand people. (Reference: World Meteorological Organization, Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2016; National Disaster Management Authority, Pakistan, June 2015.)

2. Sea-level rise.

Global sea level rose by about 19 cm between 1901 and 2010, threatening coastal cities, deltas and small island states with flooding and salinity. (Reference: IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group I, 2013.)

3. Extreme weather.

Climate change makes floods, droughts, cyclones and storms more intense and frequent, causing heavy losses of life and property. (Reference: IPCC, Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events (SREX), 2012.)

4. Melting glaciers and water stress.

Glaciers in the Himalayas, Andes and Alps are retreating, threatening the water supply of hundreds of millions of people who depend on glacier-fed rivers such as the Indus. (Reference: IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, 2014; ICIMOD research on Hindu Kush Himalaya glaciers.)

5. Food insecurity.

Higher temperatures, erratic rainfall and droughts reduce crop yields, especially of wheat and maize in tropical regions, threatening food security. (Reference: IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group II, 2014; FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 2016.)

6. Health risks.

The WHO estimated that climate change would cause about 250,000 additional deaths a year between 2030 and 2050 from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress. (Reference: World Health Organization, Climate Change and Health fact sheet, 2014–2016.)

7. Loss of biodiversity.

Warming and ocean acidification threaten ecosystems; mass coral bleaching hit the Great Barrier Reef in 2016, and many species face extinction. (Reference: Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2016 bleaching surveys; IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, 2014.)

8. Migration, conflict and economic losses.

Climate impacts can displace people, aggravate competition over resources and cost economies billions; developing countries such as Pakistan are consistently ranked among the most affected. (Reference: Germanwatch, Global Climate Risk Index 2016; World Bank, Shock Waves: Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty, 2016.)

Measures adopted by the Paris Conference (COP21)

1. The temperature goal.

The Agreement aims to hold the increase in global temperature to "well below 2°C" above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 2.1(a), 2015.)

2. Nationally determined contributions.

Every country must prepare, communicate and maintain Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) setting out its own climate actions, replacing Kyoto's top-down targets. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 4.2.)

3. A long-term emissions goal.

Countries aim to peak global emissions as soon as possible and achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century, in effect net-zero emissions. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 4.1.)

4. The five-year ratchet and global stocktake.

Countries must submit new, more ambitious NDCs every five years, informed by a global stocktake of collective progress, the first in 2023. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Articles 4.3, 4.9 and 14.)

5. The adaptation goal.

The Agreement establishes a global goal on adaptation to enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability, recognising adaptation as equal in importance to mitigation. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 7.)

6. Loss and damage.

For the first time, a climate treaty recognised loss and damage from climate impacts, anchoring the Warsaw International Mechanism, though without liability or compensation. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 8; Decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 51.)

7. Climate finance.

Developed countries must provide finance to developing countries, and the decision extended the goal of mobilising US$100 billion a year to 2025, with a new, higher goal to be set before then. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 9; Decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 53.)

8. An enhanced transparency framework.

All countries must report on their emissions and progress under a common transparency framework, with flexibility for developing countries, to build trust. (Reference: Paris Agreement, Article 13.)

Assessment and Pakistan's stake

The Paris Agreement was a diplomatic triumph because it brought almost every country on board, but its targets are voluntary and the first round of NDCs put the world on track for about 3°C of warming. Climate finance has remained below what developing countries need, and the US withdrawal under President Trump later tested its strength. For Pakistan, which emits less than one per cent of global greenhouse gases but is among the most vulnerable countries, the Agreement's provisions on adaptation, finance and loss and damage are vital, and the floods of 2022 showed how urgent they are.

Conclusion

On the day the Agreement was adopted, President Barack Obama called it "the best chance we have to save the one planet that we've got." Climate change is already causing heat, floods, droughts, disease and displacement across the world. The Paris Conference responded with a universal framework: a clear temperature goal, national pledges, a five-year cycle of rising ambition, and commitments on adaptation, loss and damage, finance and transparency. Its success will depend on whether countries, especially the largest emitters, turn their promises into action before it is too late.