Elaborate the reasons and impacts on Donald Trump withdrawal from climate change Paris agreement in 2015.

Introduction

Announcing his decision in the White House Rose Garden on 1 June 2017, President Donald Trump declared: "I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris." With these words, the world's largest historical emitter of greenhouse gases announced its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, adopted in December 2015 by almost every nation. The decision shook global climate diplomacy, raised questions about US reliability and threatened the agreement's goals. Its reasons lay in Trump's "America First" agenda and domestic politics, while its impacts, though serious, were softened by the resilience of the agreement and action by others.

Overview

The Paris Agreement, adopted at COP21 on 12 December 2015, aims to keep global warming "well below 2°C" and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Each country sets its own Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Under President Obama, the US pledged to cut emissions by 26–28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025 and to give US$3 billion to the Green Climate Fund. Trump announced withdrawal in June 2017; under the treaty's rules, it took effect on 4 November 2020. President Biden rejoined on 19 February 2021, but Trump ordered a second withdrawal on 20 January 2025, which took effect a year later.

Reasons for the withdrawal

1. "America First" and claimed unfairness.

Trump argued that the agreement placed "draconian" burdens on the US while letting other countries off lightly, and that it disadvantaged American workers. (Reference: Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord, the White House, 1 June 2017.)

2. Jobs and economic costs.

Citing an industry-funded study, the White House claimed that compliance could cost the US 2.7 million jobs by 2025, a figure disputed by economists. (Reference: NERA Economic Consulting study for the American Council for Capital Formation, March 2017; fact-checks by The Washington Post and others, June 2017.)

3. Coal and fossil-fuel interests.

Trump promised to revive coal mining and expand oil and gas production, which the agreement's goals would constrain. (Reference: Executive Order 13783, Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth, 28 March 2017.)

4. China and India's obligations.

Trump complained that China could keep increasing emissions until about 2030 and that India's commitments depended on foreign aid. (Reference: Statement by President Trump, 1 June 2017; China's NDC, 2015; India's INDC, 2015.)

5. Climate finance.

He objected to payments to the Green Climate Fund, to which the US had paid US$1 billion of its US$3 billion pledge, calling it a redistribution of American wealth. (Reference: Green Climate Fund, status of pledges; Statement by President Trump, 1 June 2017.)

6. Sovereignty.

Trump and his supporters viewed international climate commitments as limits on US sovereignty and on the power of Congress, since the agreement was joined by executive action. (Reference: Congressional Research Service, Paris Agreement: U.S. Climate Commitments, 2017.)

7. Scepticism of climate science.

Trump had long expressed doubts about climate change, once tweeting in 2012 that the concept of global warming "was created by and for the Chinese." (Reference: Donald Trump's post on Twitter, 6 November 2012.)

8. Domestic politics and deregulation.

Withdrawal appealed to Trump's base in coal and industrial states and was part of a broader rollback of environmental rules, including the replacement of the Clean Power Plan in 2019. (Reference: US Environmental Protection Agency, Affordable Clean Energy rule, June 2019.)

Impacts of the withdrawal

1. Loss of US leadership.

The US, which had helped broker the agreement with China in 2014–2015, gave up its leadership in climate diplomacy, damaging its credibility and soft power. (Reference: US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, 12 November 2014; Pew Research Center surveys on global views of the US, 2017–2020.)

2. China and the EU step forward.

China and the EU reaffirmed their commitment, and in September 2020 President Xi pledged carbon neutrality before 2060, while the EU set a goal of climate neutrality by 2050. (Reference: Xi Jinping's address to the UN General Assembly, 22 September 2020; European Green Deal, December 2019.)

3. Sub-national action in the US.

States, cities and businesses formed the US Climate Alliance and the "We Are Still In" coalition, pledging to meet the Paris goals regardless of federal policy. (Reference: US Climate Alliance, founded 1 June 2017; America's Pledge reports, 2017–2019.)

4. A climate finance gap.

The halt in US contributions to the Green Climate Fund and other climate finance made it harder for developed countries to meet the US$100 billion a year goal by 2020. (Reference: OECD, Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries, 2020.)

5. Weaker ambition and trust.

The US exit encouraged hesitation by some other large emitters and weakened trust that commitments would be honoured, slowing the pace of global ambition. (Reference: Climate Action Tracker assessments, 2017–2020.)

6. Emissions trajectory.

Federal rollbacks of vehicle and power plant rules kept US emissions higher than they would otherwise have been, though market shifts from coal to gas and renewables continued. (Reference: Rhodium Group, US emissions estimates, 2018–2020; US Energy Information Administration data.)

7. The Paris rules survived.

No other country followed the US out, and the Katowice rulebook (2018) was agreed, showing the resilience of the agreement. (Reference: UNFCCC, Katowice Climate Package, COP24, December 2018.)

8. Vulnerable countries hit hardest.

Countries such as Pakistan, which emit little but suffer greatly, lose when the largest historical emitter steps back from cutting emissions and providing finance, as the 2022 floods later showed. (Reference: Germanwatch, Global Climate Risk Index; Government of Pakistan, Post-Disaster Needs Assessment 2022.)

Conclusion

Hours after Trump's announcement in June 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron responded with the call to "make our planet great again." The US withdrawal was driven by Trump's economic nationalism, fossil-fuel interests and scepticism of climate science. It cost the US its climate leadership and slowed global finance and ambition, but it did not destroy the Paris Agreement, which survived through the commitment of other countries and of Americans themselves. The repeated US exits since then show that durable climate action needs commitments that do not change with every election.