Joining the US led coalition in the war against terrorism has many short and long term repercussions for Pakistan. Elaborate.

Introduction

Addressing the US Congress on 20 September 2001, President George W. Bush told the world: "Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists." Pakistan, which had recognised the Taliban government in Afghanistan, faced a stark choice. General Pervez Musharraf decided to join the US-led coalition, arguing that refusal would endanger Pakistan's security, economy and Kashmir cause. That decision changed Pakistan more than any event since 1971. In the short term it brought aid and recognition; in the long term it brought terrorism, displacement and mistrust, the effects of which are still felt today.

Overview

After the attacks of 11 September 2001, Pakistan provided the United States with airbases such as Shamsi and Jacobabad, overflight rights, logistics routes for NATO supplies and intelligence cooperation. It became a Major Non-NATO Ally in 2004. Between 2002 and 2018 Pakistan received more than $30 billion in US security and economic assistance, including reimbursements from the Coalition Support Fund. The war spilled into Pakistan's tribal areas, and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged in 2007. Relations with the US reached their lowest point in 2011, and the war ended with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, which brought the Taliban back to power.

Short-term repercussions

1. End of sanctions and isolation.

Sanctions imposed after the 1998 nuclear tests and the 1999 coup were lifted in September 2001, ending Pakistan's diplomatic isolation almost overnight. (Reference: US Presidential Determination No. 2001-28, 22 September 2001, waiving nuclear-related sanctions; Dennis Kux, The United States and Pakistan 1947-2000, Woodrow Wilson Center Press, 2001.)

2. Economic aid and debt relief.

The Paris Club rescheduled about $12.5 billion of Pakistan's bilateral debt in December 2001, and US aid, IMF and World Bank lending resumed. Economic growth and foreign exchange reserves improved in the years that followed. (Reference: Paris Club, agreement with Pakistan, 13 December 2001; Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2002-03.)

3. International legitimacy for the government.

A military government that had been shunned after 1999 gained acceptance in Western capitals, and Musharraf was welcomed in Washington and London. (Reference: Husain Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, Carnegie Endowment, 2005.)

4. Military modernisation.

Pakistan received F-16 aircraft, P-3C Orion maritime aircraft and other equipment, and military cooperation with the US expanded. (Reference: Congressional Research Service, Pakistan-U.S. Relations, report by K. Alan Kronstadt; US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notifications.)

5. Loss of strategic depth in Afghanistan.

The fall of the Taliban in November 2001 and the rise of the Karzai government, which was close to India, ended Pakistan's influence in Kabul and opened the way for Indian consulates near the Pakistani border. (Reference: Ahmed Rashid, Descent into Chaos, Viking, 2008.)

6. Immediate domestic backlash.

Religious parties organised mass protests, and the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal won power in the Frontier and a share in Balochistan in the 2002 elections on an anti-American platform. (Reference: Election Commission of Pakistan, results of the 2002 general elections; Haqqani, Pakistan: Between Mosque and Military, 2005.)

7. Military operations in the tribal areas.

For the first time the army entered the tribal areas in force, beginning with operations in South Waziristan in 2004, which led to heavy casualties and peace deals that later collapsed. (Reference: Shuja Nawaz, FATA: A Most Dangerous Place, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2009.)

8. Drone strikes and concerns over sovereignty.

US drone strikes in the tribal areas began in 2004 and increased sharply after 2008, killing militants but also civilians and causing public anger about violations of sovereignty. (Reference: Bureau of Investigative Journalism, drone strikes database; Peshawar High Court judgment on drone strikes, 9 May 2013.)

Long-term repercussions

1. Rise of the TTP and terrorism.

Militants displaced from Afghanistan and angered by Pakistan's role formed the TTP in December 2007. The country suffered suicide bombings in every major city, culminating in the Army Public School attack in Peshawar (16 December 2014), which killed over 140 people, most of them children. (Reference: South Asia Terrorism Portal, Pakistan data; Ministry of Interior, National Action Plan, 2014.)

2. Human and economic losses.

Pakistan suffered more than 80,000 casualties, including thousands of soldiers, and estimated direct and indirect economic losses of about $127 billion from 2001 to 2018, through destroyed infrastructure, lost investment and lower exports. (Reference: Finance Division, Pakistan Economic Survey 2017-18, annex on the impact of the war on terror.)

3. Massive displacement.

Military operations in Swat in 2009 displaced more than two million people, and operations in Waziristan displaced hundreds of thousands more, while Pakistan continued to host millions of Afghan refugees. (Reference: UNHCR, Pakistan IDP data, 2009; UNHCR, Pakistan operational data portal.)

4. Extremism and sectarianism.

The war deepened radicalisation, sectarian violence and intolerance, as seen in attacks on shrines, minorities and the Lal Masjid crisis of July 2007. (Reference: National Internal Security Policy 2014-2018, Ministry of Interior; Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, State of Human Rights reports.)

5. A deep trust deficit with the United States.

The Raymond Davis affair (January 2011), the Abbottabad raid (May 2011) and the Salala attack (November 2011), which killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and led to the closure of NATO supply routes for seven months, left lasting mistrust on both sides. (Reference: Abbottabad Commission Report, 2013; Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements, November 2011.)

6. A damaged international image.

Pakistan was often portrayed as a haven for terrorism. International cricket stopped after the attack on the Sri Lankan team in Lahore (March 2009), and Pakistan was placed on the FATF grey list from June 2018 to October 2022. (Reference: Financial Action Task Force, public statements, June 2018 and October 2022; International Cricket Council statements, 2009.)

7. Tensions with Afghanistan.

Accusations of cross-border militancy poisoned relations with Kabul under Karzai and Ghani, and even under the Taliban government after 2021, TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan remain a major dispute. (Reference: UN Security Council, Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reports on the TTP, 2023; Ministry of Foreign Affairs statements.)

8. Transformation of security policy.

The war forced Pakistan to build counter-terrorism capacity, fence the Afghan border, merge FATA into Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adopt the National Action Plan. Operations Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad sharply reduced terrorism for several years, and Pakistan's tilt towards China deepened. (Reference: Constitution (Twenty-fifth Amendment) Act 2018; ISPR, Operation Zarb-e-Azb briefings; Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, Pakistan Security Report 2018.)

Conclusion

Lord Palmerston told the House of Commons in 1848: "We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual." Pakistan's experience in the war on terror shows the truth of these words. Joining the coalition brought short-term relief from sanctions, aid and legitimacy, but it also brought long-term costs in lives, economic losses, extremism, displacement and mistrust with both Washington and Kabul. The lesson for Pakistan is to base its foreign policy on national interest, internal consensus and long-term stability rather than on short-term gains from great-power alliances.