The impact of burgeoning US-India strategic partnership over the security situation of the region and Indian Ocean Region.

Introduction

A statement often attributed to the American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan holds that "whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia." Whether or not Mahan said it, the idea explains why the United States and India have built a fast-growing strategic partnership. Both want to balance China's rise, and both see the Indian Ocean, through which much of the world's oil and trade passes, as central to that goal. The partnership has transformed India's military capabilities and its role at sea, with major consequences for security in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), especially for Pakistan.

Overview

The partnership began with the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (2004) and the civil nuclear deal (2005–2008). The US designated India a Major Defense Partner in 2016 and signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in August 2016, followed by COMCASA (2018) and BECA (2020). India has bought US aircraft such as the P-8I, C-17, C-130J and Apache and Chinook helicopters, and the two navies regularly exercise together in the Malabar series, now including Japan and Australia. US defence sales to India grew from almost nothing in 2008 to over US$20 billion by 2020.

Impact on the security situation of the region (South Asia)

1. Conventional imbalance.

US weapons, technology and intelligence sharing widen the conventional military gap between India and Pakistan, increasing Pakistan's sense of insecurity. (Reference: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database; US Defense Security Cooperation Agency notifications.)

2. Nuclear implications of the civil nuclear deal.

The 2008 NSG waiver allowed India to import uranium for civilian reactors, which Pakistan argues frees India's domestic uranium for weapons, and it was denied a similar deal. (Reference: NSG Statement on Civil Nuclear Cooperation with India, 6 September 2008; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan statements.)

3. An arms race.

India's acquisition of advanced systems pushes Pakistan to develop counter-measures such as tactical nuclear weapons and MIRVed missiles, fuelling a regional arms race. (Reference: SIPRI Yearbook 2017 and 2025, nuclear forces of India and Pakistan; ISPR, Nasr and Ababeel tests.)

4. Intensified India-China rivalry.

The partnership encourages India to stand up to China, contributing to border crises such as Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020). (Reference: Ministry of External Affairs of India statements, 2017 and 2020.)

5. Closer Pakistan-China alignment.

In response, Pakistan and China deepen their strategic partnership in defence, CPEC and diplomacy, dividing South Asia into competing alignments. (Reference: Joint Statements of Pakistan and China, 2015–2024.)

6. US role in crisis management.

Washington's closeness to India makes Pakistan doubt US neutrality in crises, though the US has still played a role in defusing tensions, as after Balakot (2019). (Reference: US Department of State statements, February–March 2019.)

7. Afghanistan.

US encouragement of India's role in Afghanistan heightened Pakistan's fears of encirclement and influenced its Afghan policy. (Reference: Remarks by President Trump on South Asia strategy, 21 August 2017.)

8. Hedging by smaller states.

Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the Maldives balance between India-US and China, making South Asia an arena of great-power competition. (Reference: Carnegie Endowment and International Crisis Group analyses, 2018–2025.)

Impact on the Indian Ocean Region

1. Indian naval expansion.

With US support, India is building a blue-water navy, commissioning its first indigenous aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, in September 2022. (Reference: Indian Ministry of Defence, commissioning of INS Vikrant, 2 September 2022.)

2. Access to bases through LEMOA.

LEMOA allows Indian and US forces to use each other's facilities for refuelling and repairs, extending India's reach to US bases such as Diego Garcia and Djibouti. (Reference: LEMOA, August 2016; US Department of Defense statements.)

3. Malabar and joint patrols.

The Malabar exercises, which became quadrilateral in 2020, improve interoperability and signal joint naval power in the Indian Ocean and beyond. (Reference: Indian Navy, Malabar 2020 press release.)

4. Maritime domain awareness.

India set up the Information Fusion Centre-Indian Ocean Region in 2018 and shares maritime data with the US and partners, tracking shipping and submarines. (Reference: Indian Navy, IFC-IOR, Gurugram, December 2018.)

5. Response to China's port presence.

The partnership aims to counter China's presence at Gwadar, Hambantota, Kyaukphyu and its base in Djibouti, which India calls a "string of pearls". (Reference: US Department of Defense, China Military Power Report; Indian Navy, Indian Maritime Security Strategy, 2015.)

6. Nuclearisation of the ocean.

India's nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine INS Arihant completed its first deterrence patrol in November 2018, bringing nuclear competition to the Indian Ocean. (Reference: Prime Minister's Office of India, statement of 5 November 2018.)

7. Pakistan's maritime response.

Pakistan responded with the Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (2017) for a sea-based second strike and the multinational AMAN naval exercises it has hosted since 2007. (Reference: ISPR, Babur-3 test, 9 January 2017; Pakistan Navy, AMAN exercises.)

8. Stakes for littoral states.

Smaller Indian Ocean states face pressure to choose sides, while issues such as the 2025 UK-Mauritius agreement on the Chagos Islands, which keeps the US base at Diego Garcia, show the ocean's strategic value. (Reference: UK-Mauritius Treaty on the Chagos Archipelago, May 2025; Indian Ocean Rim Association.)

Conclusion

Indian diplomat and historian K. M. Panikkar wrote in 1945 that while to other countries the Indian Ocean is "only one of the important oceanic areas, to India it is a vital sea." The US-India partnership is helping India turn that belief into naval power. It has strengthened India's position against China, but it has also widened imbalances in South Asia, fuelled an arms race and brought great-power rivalry and nuclear weapons into the Indian Ocean. For Pakistan and the region, security now depends on maintaining credible deterrence, promoting maritime cooperation and keeping the Indian Ocean an ocean of peace rather than a battleground.