India has emerged as an economic and political power in the past few years. What are the likely implications of this scenario for the region's strategic dynamics in general and Pakistan in particular?

Introduction

At midnight on 14–15 August 1947, Jawaharlal Nehru told India's Constituent Assembly: "At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom." More than seven decades later, India has awakened as a major economic and political power. With the world's largest population, one of its fastest-growing major economies and close partnerships with the United States, Europe, Russia and the Gulf, India now seeks great-power status. Its rise reshapes South Asia's strategic dynamics, from the Himalayas to the Indian Ocean, and poses serious challenges for Pakistan, the neighbour with which it has fought four wars and several crises.

Overview

India overtook the United Kingdom to become the world's fifth-largest economy in 2022, and the IMF projected it to become the fourth-largest in 2025. It became the world's most populous country in 2023, hosted the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, where the African Union was admitted as a permanent member, and landed Chandrayaan-3 near the Moon's south pole in August 2023. India is the world's fifth-largest military spender, at about US$86 billion in 2024, and the largest arms importer for much of the past decade. Its partnerships with the US, including the Quad and the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, reflect Washington's view of India as a counterweight to China.

Implications for the region's strategic dynamics

1. Intensified India-China rivalry.

The deadly Galwan Valley clash of June 2020 ended decades without fatal border clashes. India's rise and China's power make the Himalayas a zone of long-term competition, despite a patrolling agreement reached in October 2024. (Reference: Ministry of External Affairs of India, statement on the patrolling arrangement, 21 October 2024; IISS, The Military Balance 2025.)

2. US-India partnership and the Quad.

The US supports India's rise through technology, defence co-production and intelligence sharing, drawing South Asia into the US-China rivalry. (Reference: US-India Joint Statement, 22 June 2023; Quad Leaders' Joint Statements, 2021–2024.)

3. Arms race and nuclear dynamics.

India's tests of the Agni-V missile with multiple warheads (MIRV) in March 2024, its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine commissioned in 2024, and missile defence push Pakistan and China to respond, raising the risk of an arms race. (Reference: Ministry of Defence of India, Mission Divyastra, 11 March 2024; SIPRI Yearbook 2025 on nuclear forces.)

4. Competition in the Indian Ocean.

India's navy is expanding to counter China's growing presence, including Chinese-built ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, making the Indian Ocean a theatre of rivalry. (Reference: Indian Navy, Indian Maritime Security Strategy, 2015; US Department of Defense, China Military Power Report 2024.)

5. Pressure on smaller neighbours.

Nepal, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Bangladesh balance between India and China, and anti-India sentiment, such as the Maldives' "India Out" campaign and the shift in Bangladesh after August 2024, shows that India's dominance is resisted. (Reference: International Crisis Group and Carnegie Endowment analyses, 2023–2025.)

6. A weakened SAARC.

India's preference for sub-regional groups such as BIMSTEC and its boycott of the 2016 SAARC summit in Islamabad have left South Asia's only regional organisation frozen, excluding Pakistan from regional cooperation frameworks. (Reference: SAARC Secretariat; BIMSTEC Charter, March 2022.)

7. India's Global South diplomacy.

India presents itself as the "voice of the Global South", holding Voice of the Global South summits since January 2023, which increases its diplomatic influence in Africa and Asia. (Reference: Ministry of External Affairs of India, Voice of the Global South Summits, 2023–2024.)

8. Hindutva and regional perceptions.

The rise of Hindu nationalism, the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019 and treatment of minorities have raised concerns across the region and in the Muslim world, affecting how neighbours view India's power. (Reference: US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), annual reports on India, 2020–2025; Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019.)

Implications for Pakistan

1. A widening economic and conventional gap.

India's economy is now about ten times larger than Pakistan's, allowing it to outspend Pakistan many times over on defence and technology, which widens the conventional military imbalance. (Reference: IMF, World Economic Outlook database, 2025; SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 2024.)

2. Nuclear deterrence under pressure.

As the conventional gap grows, Pakistan relies more on nuclear deterrence, including full-spectrum deterrence, while Indian missile defence and second-strike capabilities complicate its calculations. (Reference: Strategic Plans Division statements; Lt Gen (R) Khalid Kidwai, remarks at IISS and CISS conferences.)

3. Kashmir sidelined.

India's revocation of Article 370 in August 2019 and its diplomatic weight have made it harder for Pakistan to keep Kashmir on the international agenda, as major powers prioritise ties with India. (Reference: Presidential Order C.O. 272, 5 August 2019; UN Security Council closed consultations, August 2019.)

4. Water as a weapon.

After the Pahalgam attack of 22 April 2025, India declared the Indus Waters Treaty "in abeyance", a step Pakistan said it would treat as an "act of war" if water flows were stopped. (Reference: Ministry of External Affairs of India statement, 23 April 2025; National Security Committee of Pakistan statement, 24 April 2025.)

5. Crisis instability.

Crises such as Pulwama-Balakot (2019) and the May 2025 conflict, when India struck targets in Pakistan and Pakistan responded with Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos before a ceasefire on 10 May, show that India's confidence raises the risk of escalation between nuclear states. (Reference: ISPR statements, May 2025; Ministry of External Affairs of India statements, May 2025.)

6. Diplomatic pressure.

India uses its influence in forums such as the FATF, the NSG and BRICS to pressure Pakistan or block its entry, while gaining technology waivers for itself. (Reference: FATF plenary outcomes, 2018–2022; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan statements on BRICS membership, 2024.)

7. Hybrid warfare and disinformation.

Pakistan accuses India of supporting militancy in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the EU DisinfoLab exposed a long-running Indian network of fake media and NGOs targeting Pakistan. (Reference: EU DisinfoLab, Indian Chronicles, December 2020; ISPR and Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan dossiers, 2020.)

8. A deeper Pakistan-China partnership.

India's rise and the US-India partnership push Pakistan closer to China in defence, CPEC and diplomacy, as seen in the use of Chinese-made fighters and missiles in May 2025. (Reference: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database; Joint Statements of Pakistan and China, 2024–2025.)

Pakistan's response

Pakistan's best response is not to match India rupee for rupee but to strengthen its economy, the foundation of national power. It must maintain credible minimum deterrence, modernise its conventional forces with cost-effective technology, deepen ties with China while improving relations with the US, the Gulf and Europe, and use international law on Kashmir and the Indus Waters Treaty. Above all, political stability and economic growth will determine whether Pakistan can manage the challenge of a rising India.

Conclusion

Thucydides explained the Peloponnesian War with these words: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." India's rise does not make conflict inevitable, but it is changing the balance of power in South Asia and fuelling rivalry with China and Pakistan. For the region, the challenge is to ensure that India's growth becomes a source of shared prosperity rather than domination. For Pakistan, the lesson is clear: only economic strength, internal unity and wise diplomacy can secure its interests next to a rising neighbour.